PEDRO ANTÔNIO MORAES HADDAD

The intellectual context of Cambridge in the early 20th century was marked by intense debate over rationalist theses, adopted by academics of the Bloomsbury Group and the Cambridge Apostles, as well as by the impact of World War I. John Maynard Keynes developed his main theses concerning philosophy, particularly theories of knowledge and ethics, within this context. In line with the gradual consolidation of his worldview, the British economist made use of elements from epistemology, logic, psychology, and social sciences to structure his theory of probability. By understanding A Treatise on Probability, the works that influenced it, and the broader context surrounding them, it is possible to establish a strong foundation for comprehending Keynes's main epistemological thesis—namely, the definition of the conditions and criteria that underpin the formation of rational beliefs and drive the decision-making process of individuals in environments of uncertainty.